Notes Tagged ‘Politics’

Newt and the Hypocrites

August 15th, 2009
702. 

Great band name, huh?  It should probably be Newt and the Lying Hypocrites, but that is beside the point.

On a serious note, the latest health care lie pushed by the republicans is “Obama is going to kill your grandma.”  Classic shock and awe, baby. It has ignited outrage, protests, and many viral forwarded emails. (Has anyone received a mass forwarded political email that’s actually true? I haven’t.)

Too bad it’s not true. (Despite being continuously pushed, to this day, by the likes of Glenn Beck, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, the teabaggers, and various repub congresspeople.)  And too bad the republican leadership (read Newt Gingrich) were for it, before they were against it.

In comes a great post from Matt Taibbi on True/Slant titled, Newt Gingrich Changes What’s Left of his Mind on End-of-life Care.

So, a few months ago someone wrote this in the Washington Post:

More than 20 percent of all Medicare spending occurs in the last two months of life. Gundersen Lutheran Health System in La Crosse, Wisconsin has developed a successful end-of-life, best practice that combines: 1) community-wide advance care planning, where 90 percent of patients have advance directives; 2) hospice and palliative care; and 3) coordination of services through an electronic medical record. The Gundersen approach empowers patients and families to control and direct their care. The Dartmouth Health Atlas has documented that Gundersen delivers care at a 30 percent lower rate than the national average ($18,359 versus $25,860). If Gundersen’s approach was used to care for the approximately 4.5 million Medicare beneficiaries who die every year, Medicare could save more than $33 billion a year.

via Health Care Rx: Across the Country, Some Systems Are Getting It Right – Newt Gingrich.

Yup, Newt Gingrich. So Newt loves him some advanced care directives! Would save Medicare more than $33 billion per year. Sounds good, right? So good, we should include it in the health care reform bill.

Except that is the portion of the health care bill the baggers are flipping out about. Kill Grandma! Obama loves Euthanasia! Government Death Panels! So, Newt must be trying to set them straight, right? Nope. He’s against it, now.

Newt defending Palin’s crusade against Death Panels:

STEPHANOPOLOUS: The only thing that’s in the bill is that Medicare would pay for what they say is voluntary counseling on end-of-life issues.

GINGRICH: I think people are very concerned when you start talking about cost-controls… you’re asking us to trust the government. Now I’m not talking about the Obama administration, I’m talking about the government. You’re asking us to believe that the government is to be trusted. We know people who’ve said routinely, well, you’re going to have to make decisions. You’re going to have to decide. Communal stadards, historically, is a very dangerous concept.

STEPHANOPOLOUS: It’s not in the bill.

GINGRICH: (stammering) B-but, the bill’s… a thousand pages of setting up mechanisms. It sets up 45 different agencies. It has all sorts of panels. You’re asking us to trust the government when there clearly are people in America who believe in establishing euthanasia, including selective standards.

Yeah, you go Newt. Say it like you really mean it! Matt nails it at the end of his post:

Amazing. I mean, talk about being full of shit. This is as clear a case as you will ever find of a politician just getting up on television and just flat-out dogging it, saying something without even the faintest shred of belief, just as a means to an end. What an asshole!

The sad thing is, while health care is obviously in need of reform, the teabaggers/birthers/fringe lunatics that are out at town halls screaming their heads off (and getting all of that news coverage) don’t want ANY bill to pass. Their goal is to make sure no bill passes — anything else and they fail.

It’s ridiculous really, that anything the neocons are against they cue up the script: distort/lie about the issue (the more dramatic and shocking the better), scream until they are heard, the media feels like they need to provide a soapbox to this fringe group (all sides need equal time, of course!), and the story spreads. It always seems to work. They may have really bad ideas (when they do have ideas, other than ‘No! We don’t want that.’) and nutcases (Palin, Beck, Limbaugh, Steele, Santorum, etc. etc.) for spokespeople, but they are good marketers. They know how to work the system.

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Two Must Read Articles

November 10th, 2008
477. 

Two more on the economy and the Treasury Department…

First up, the Tresury Department released a notice during the September bailout hullabaloo that could give banks a windfall up to $140 billion due to tax policy change. Tax experts and congressional members have weighed in on this change, calling it everything from exceeding authority to illegal.

And finally, the Treasury Department refuses to release the names of recipients of $2 trillion in emergency taxpayer loans or the troubled assets the government is accepting as collateral. All despite Paulson’s promise to comply with congressional demands for transparency.

The bailout is beginning to feel like Bush’s last great heist before leaving office.

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Live Blogging – Election Night

November 4th, 2008
455. 

Exciting night! Results are starting to pour in, so let’s get to it…

8:30pm — MSNBC is showing 103 – 34 with a lot of pre-9pm states still not called. My projections are showing 66 safe electoral votes are pretty safe to call for McCain (WV, AL, KS, MS, TX, AR), so that would put McCain at 100 even. Obama only has 17 outstanding from the ‘safe’ category, so put him at 120. Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri are still the big ones that could be called soon.

8:35pm — Looking ahead to the 9pm closing states, Obama has 55 ‘safe’ electoral votes waiting for him with Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin. And Georgia was just called for McCain, so that knocks off Obama’s late push in that state.

8:40pm — Looking ahead, again, the 55 would put Obama at 158. Add Georgia into McCain and I’ll put him at 115. Add in the ‘safe’ 9pm McCain states (Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming), which will give him 20 more electoral votes to bring his total to 135. So at this point, called states plus outstanding ‘safe’ states (through 9pm close) put it at 158 – 135.

8:48pm — Looking ahead to the few 10pm and later states, Obama has a big group in his ‘safe’ category (Iowa, California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii) which will net him 84 electoral votes. That would put him at 242 when you look at called, plus ‘safe’ states. 28 electoral votes to win, with Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada left out there… Florida would clinch it, Virginia/Nevada/Colorado would do it, Ohio plus Colorado too. Anyway, lots of options for Obama. McCain, on the other hand, has 12 electoral votes in the after 10pm group, so that would put him at 147 in the called/’safe’ category.

9:02pm — NY, MN, WI and MI called for Obama. MSNBC has Obama at 175 to McCain’s 70.

9:09pm — Add in the safe 10pm states and you have 259 Obama. 11 EVs for a win!

9:12pm — And everyone on the West coast, please still keep voting! I want to see a staggering, no doubt win for Obama!

9:21pm — North Dakota and Arkansas for McCain. No surprises, there.

9:23pm — Seeing tweets over on Twitter than Fox News is calling Ohio for Obama. That’s the clincher folks. 259 + Ohio’s 20 = 279. Congrats to President-elect Obama!

9:30pm — All we need is CA, WA, OR, IA and HI to deliver their 84 electoral votes. Add to MSNBC’s 195 and you got the win. It’s over folks. No VA or FL. Plus MSNBC just called New Mexico to give him 200 even. It’s over folks. Call it!

9:44pm — read on Twitter, CNN called it for Obama citing it’s impossible for McCain to win. Only 21 or so minutes from the clinching Ohio win. Not too bad…

11pm — NBC/MSNBC called it for Obama. I’m packing it up and heading to bed. Too exciting, too much for words. A truly historic moment for Americans that I’m proud to have witnessed and supported. Go Obama!

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How things should shape up tomorrow night.

November 3rd, 2008
447. 

I took a look at the latest polls and projections on FiveThirtyEight.com and RealClearPolitics.com and mapped them out by when the polls close in each state to see how things should progress tomorrow night. All this assuming that states report fairly quickly and that the projections play out as expected.

By 8pm, the race should be almost even with the states closing before that time sending Obama 63 electoral votes to McCain’s 62 votes.

The polls closing in the eight o’clock hour should net Obama 117 electoral votes to bring him to 180, while McCain should pick up 90 to bring him to 152.  So by 9pm, Obama should have a +28 lead over McCain, with 206 electoral votes outstanding.

The nine o’clock hour should bring Obama 69 electoral votes to bring him up to 249, while McCain should pick up 33 votes to bring him to 185. Not a very exciting hour just looking at the total electoral votes divied out, however the bigger news is there are only 104 electoral votes left at this point, which means McCain is really running out of options to win.

If Obama can get to 186 electoral votes through the states that close before 10pm ET, he’ll be our next President. The safe states after 10pm are: Iowa, California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii, which equal 84 electoral votes. So, given he has 63 electorals to play with at this point, Obama could lose Florida, Ohio and Virginia and still win. 

Even looking at the safe states perespective, Obama has 130 “safe” (polling at least +10% difference over McCain) electoral votes before the 10pm states close, so Obama only needs to pick up 56 electorals from these states where he is currently polling ahead: Florida (27), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (21), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), and Wisconsin (10).  

Including the states that are polling between +8% and +10% difference for Obama (Wisconsin, New Mexico, Minnesota, new Hampshire) will give him 29 additional electoral to bring his total to 159 – leaving 27 votes needed from Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

Looking at that group, the next best options are Colorado and Pennsylvania, which are polling between +5% to +7% Obama, so those two would give him 30 more electorals to put him over the top.  Which means he can lose Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia and still win.

So with that, the best bet for an Obama win is a win in Pennsylvania and Colorado. However, with 243 electoral votes coming from states polling +7% or greater for Obama, there are a few other likely options that can put him over the 270 mark:

  • Ohio and Colorado
  • Colorado, Virginia and Nevada
  • Pennsylvania and Virginia
  • Florida

All those states are polling between +3% and +7% for Obama, with the exception of Florida. So keep an eye on those states tomorrow night. Virginia and Florida close at 7pm ET, Ohio at 7:30pm, Pennsylvania at 8pm, Colorado at 9pm and Nevada at 10pm ET. Those results will determine the election.

Update: Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has an hour-by-hour breakdown of what to watch for tomorrow on Newsweek, in much greater (and better quality) detail than what I did here. He’s the master. Definitely check the article and his site as tomorrow unfolds.

Here’s the spreadsheet:

<iframe width=’520′ height=’600′ frameborder=’0′ src=’http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pE5z1z8tQQj8E1r5i9X14fA&output=html&gid=0&single=true&widget=true’></iframe>

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Five Days Out

October 30th, 2008
428. 

Cautious optimism.

Map created using Real Clear Politics map generator. Data using FiveThirtyEight’s polling projections. All poll projections greater than 6% margin were deemed ‘solid’, less than that ‘leaning’, and anything less than say 1% were ‘toss up’.

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F.U.D. vs Hope

October 30th, 2008
416. 

The election has boiled down to this, in my opinion: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (F.U.D.) versus Hope.

The McCain/Palin campaign and right wingers sling the F.U.D. better than anyone. Remember, when you go to the polls next Tuesday that Barack is: black, an Arab, a Muslim, a terrorist, a friend of terrorists, a communist, a socialist, not born in the U.S., a man of the streets, a druggy, a womanizer, Osama, a thug, naive, anti-Israel, the anti-christ, satan, foreign, an unknown, a racist, uppity, an elitist, not patriotic, anti-American, and a liberal. (I’ll spare the racist slurs.) And don’t forget, he’s going to re-write the Constitution, raise your taxes and redistribute wealth.

Contrast that with this:

Now I agree Obama is not perfect and he will be hard pressed to make most of his plans happen, but what does McCain offer that gives you hope for the future? Not much that I’ve seen. It’s almost entirely status quo – from economic policies to Iraq. I constantly ask McCain supporters (the few I do know) what does he offer you?, what excites you about him? I never really get any solid answers to those questions.

When it comes down to it, it’s the same as we’ve seen for the last 8 years (and all the Republican years of my life time.) Pro-corporate, pro-rich, pro-profits, trickle down, pro-war, faux compassionate, faux small government, fear mongering, divisive, vote supressing, huge deficit running, national debt growing B.S that is the Republican brand. And it has to end. It has destroyed the middle class, caused the current financial crisis, ruined our standing in the world, and it had it’s chance… and it doesn’t work. Time to move on to something progressive.

Country First, McCain? Please. More like Wealthy First, Evangelicals First, Identity Politics First, F.U.D. First. You were an honorable man, but the campaign you’ve run is shameful and goes against everything you used to stand for… remember what Bush did to you in 2000? Fast forward 8 years and you are Bush – in more ways than one, Mr. 90%.

I’m just glad Obama has stayed above the mud slinging. That alone shows the character I want in my President.

Vote Obama. But more importantly, vote!

Update: And consider this, from Talking Points Memo:

Obama can go on TV for 30 minutes and not mention John McCain even once.

No way would the reverse be true.

Update 2: And add this one: Barack is the son of Malcolm X. Seriously.

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Oh, Palin.

October 29th, 2008
414. 

Is there anything she won’t exaggerate or lie about?

Today in Ohio while introducing Joe the Plumber:

“He’s a fellow Alaska[n], and he’s a fellow military man who has served our country proudly. I’d like you to meet him.”

The problem is, he isn’t either. But I guess we his name isn’t really Joe, nor a plumber, I guess these details become trivial.

Like I said before, the McCain campaign has repeatedly shown that the details are trivial for almost everything they do or say, from exaggerating or lying about their own records or Obama/Biden’s to stupid stuff like this… which scares me. The details DO matter and if you are the leader of the best/most powerful/leading country in the world, you need to pay attention to details. We’ve seen what 8 years of that kind of approach can do already.

Update: Apparently he lived in Alaska for 4 years, which to Palin makes him an Alaskan. So I guess that makes me from Washington state since I lived there for 5 years.

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Joe the (unlicensed) Plumber?

October 16th, 2008
410. 

It seems the McCain camp is really having problems vetting folks these days (especially someone you are going to mention almost two dozen times at the final debate)… the AP is reportng that Joe the Plumber is not a licensed plumber AND he owes $1200 in back taxes.

The head of the local plumbers’ union says added:

“He has no license whatsoever with the city of Toledo,” said Tom Joseph, the business manager for Local Union 50 of the Plumbers, Steamfitters and Service Mechanics, which has endorsed Obama. “He has no license in the state of Ohio. He has no contractor’s license in the state of Ohio. He is not a plumber. He works for a plumber.”

And how much is the business Joe works for worth?

According to Joseph, Newell Plumbing & Heating is far from a $250K-a-year operation. Newell is running “a two-man shop,” he said. “This is not a thriving business.”

Isn’t there a chance it could be worth $250K? “Oh, God no,” Joseph said. “Maybe if he sells him the house, the garage.” He explained that the address for the business “is where the man lives at.”

Maybe Joe slept at a Holiday Inn Express the night before he got his 15 minutes of fame.

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Women's Health, Extreme?

October 16th, 2008
408. 

John McCain at last night’s debate:

“Just again, the example of the eloquence of Sen. Obama. He’s health for the mother. You know, that’s been stretched by the pro-abortion movement in America to mean almost anything. That’s the extreme pro-abortion position, quote, ‘health.’”

So, women’s health is extreme? Just goes to show you – if you are female you shouldn’t vote for John McCain. You’ve been warned. (See the Women’s Issues section at the top of this page. Yeah I know I haven’t updated it in a while… McCain was doing a better job than I was anyway.)

Not to mention pro-abortion? No one is pro-abortion, John. That’s one fact that the right can’t seem to get through their heads. Just because you are pro-choice doesn’t mean you’ll choose abortion. It just means you don’t want white males in power making the decision for you. Simple, huh?

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Oh the irony.

October 10th, 2008
396. 

Palin at a rally in Wisconsin yesterday:

“Are Americans having an opportunity to ask all the questions and are we receiving straight answers from our opponent?”

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