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Notes Tagged ‘primary’

Wow. Glad I don't live in West Virginia

May 15th, 2008

200.

The Daily Show looks at the West Virginia primary:

Tags: clinton, democrats, election, obama, Politics, primary, west virginia
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Krugman on the proposed gas tax holiday

April 30th, 2008

198.

Krugman and every other economist/analyst I’ve heard over the last few days come to the same conclusion when talking about McCain and Clinton’s proposed gas tax holiday.

Pointless and borderline pandering for votes.

Here’s Krugman’s take:

Why doesn’t cutting the gas tax this summer make sense? It’s Econ 101 tax incidence theory: if the supply of a good is more or less unresponsive to the price, the price to consumers will always rise until the quantity demanded falls to match the quantity supplied. Cut taxes, and all that happens is that the pretax price rises by the same amount. The McCain gas tax plan is a giveaway to oil companies, disguised as a gift to consumers.

And on Clinton’s plan, specifically:

The Clinton twist is that she proposes paying for the revenue loss with an excess profits tax on oil companies. In one pocket, out the other. So it’s pointless, not evil. But it is pointless, and disappointing.

And who’s the only canidate with the guts to stand up against this useless plan (even when it sounds so good at first listen)? That’s right, Obama.

Tags: clinton, economics, election, gas tax holiday, krugman, mcbush, mccain, obama, primary
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Hilary's Math: How is she still viable?

April 29th, 2008

197.

Using the Slate.com delegate calculator, along with the New York Times Democratic Delegate Count, I’ve come to the idea that Hilary needs, at the very least, 99% of the remaining, unpledged super delegates to win the Democratic nomination.

Here’s my logic and guesses for upcoming primaries:

Guam – Obama wins, 55-45, 2 delegates each
Indiana – HRC wins 53-47, giving her 38 delegates to BO’s 34
North Carolina – Obama wins 55-45, giving him 63 delegates to HRC’s 52
West Virginia – HRC wins 53-47, giving her 15 delegates to BO’s 13
Kentucky – HRC wins 53-47, giving HRC 27 delegates to 24
Oregon – BO wins 54-46, giving BO 28 delegates to 24
Puerto Rico – BO wins 54-46, giving BO 30 delegates to 25
Montana – HRC wins 55-45, giving HRC 9 delegates to 7
South Dakota – HRC wins 55-45, giving HRC 8 delegates to 7

At the end of all that, Obama has 1,699 pledged delegates to HRC’s 1,536. Throw in the AP’s count of super delegates and you have 1,939 for Obama to 1,802 for HRC. That count also leaves 226 non-committed super delegates to get to the 2,025 total needed for nomination. So BO needs 38% of the super delegates and HRC needs 99% of the remaining to win the nomination. In fact, in order for Hilary to get to the total Obama would have at this stage, she’d need to win every contest named above by 80-20 margins!

Things get a little murkier when you throw in Florida and Michigan, since so much of that is unknown at this point. But, if you split delegates 50/50, you get 2,096 for Obama and 1,959 for Clinton (including super delegates)… so Obama gets the nomination with no need for the extra super delegates.

Even if you go 60/40 split with FL and MI in HRC’s favor, Obama still wins the nomination 2,064 to 1,990.

Why is she still in the race? It’s virtually impossible for her to win!

Tags: clinton, election, obama, primary
Noted in Politics | Permanent link

Obama reponds to Wright

April 29th, 2008

196.

Well, it seems as Rev Wright took any of the good will that came from the Moyers appearance and just threw it out the window to feed his ego. Obama responds today with a clear and forceful message. Very nice speech, Mr. Obama.